Key Insights
The Canadian commercial real estate market, valued at $77.09 billion in 2025, is projected to experience robust growth, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.59% from 2025 to 2033. This expansion is driven by several key factors. Firstly, increasing urbanization and population growth, particularly in major cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary, fuel demand for office, retail, and multi-family spaces. Secondly, a strengthening economy and sustained foreign investment contribute to the market's dynamism. The burgeoning technology sector, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver, is a significant driver, creating demand for modern office spaces and stimulating related infrastructure development. Furthermore, the ongoing expansion of e-commerce continues to reshape the retail landscape, influencing demand for logistics and warehouse space. However, challenges remain. Interest rate hikes and potential economic slowdown pose risks to market stability and investment. Supply chain disruptions and the ongoing impact of the pandemic on certain sectors like hospitality also need consideration. Market segmentation reveals significant activity across various property types, with office, retail, and industrial segments displaying strong potential. The regional breakdown highlights the importance of major metropolitan areas, where the majority of the investment and development are concentrated, while secondary markets in Eastern and Central Canada demonstrate promising, albeit more moderate, growth prospects. Leading players like Cominar REIT, Allied REIT, Dream Office REIT, and several prominent developers and brokerage firms shape the competitive landscape.
The forecast period of 2025-2033 shows continued expansion, although the rate of growth might fluctuate slightly year-on-year depending on broader economic conditions and government policies impacting real estate. The diverse range of companies involved, from large REITs to smaller developers and real estate firms, indicates a dynamic and competitive landscape. Sustained growth hinges on addressing the challenges, including mitigating the impact of potential economic slowdowns, adapting to evolving demands in the retail and office sectors, and ensuring a sustainable supply of high-quality properties across the country. The potential for further growth in secondary markets, leveraging technological advancements in property management and utilizing sustainable building practices, also presents significant opportunities for market participants.
Canada Commercial Real Estate Market: 2019-2033 Forecast Report
This comprehensive report provides an in-depth analysis of the Canadian commercial real estate market, covering the period from 2019 to 2033. It offers invaluable insights for investors, developers, real estate professionals, and industry stakeholders seeking to navigate this dynamic sector. The report leverages extensive data analysis, expert interviews, and industry trends to deliver actionable intelligence and future projections. Key segments analyzed include office, retail, industrial, multi-family, and hospitality properties across major Canadian cities: Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal, Edmonton, and the Rest of Canada.
Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Market Concentration & Innovation
This section analyzes the market concentration, innovation drivers, regulatory frameworks, product substitutes, end-user trends, and M&A activities within the Canadian commercial real estate market. The study period is 2019-2033, with 2025 as the base and estimated year. The forecast period spans 2025-2033, while the historical period covers 2019-2024.
The Canadian commercial real estate market exhibits a moderately concentrated structure, with a few major players holding significant market share. However, the presence of numerous smaller firms and the ongoing entry of new players contribute to a competitive landscape. Innovation is driven by technological advancements in property management, data analytics, and sustainable building practices. Regulatory frameworks, such as zoning regulations and environmental policies, significantly influence investment decisions and development strategies.
- Market Share: Goodman Commercial holds a leading market share (estimated at xx%), followed by Cominar REIT (xx%) and Dream Office REIT (xx%). Other significant players include Allied REIT, Redev Properties, and Brookfield Global Integrated Solutions. The remaining market share is dispersed among numerous smaller developers, real estate brokerage firms, and independent operators.
- M&A Activity: The past five years have witnessed significant M&A activity, with deals totaling an estimated xx Million CAD. Noteworthy transactions include the Prologis/Blackstone industrial property acquisition (USD 3.1 Billion) and VICI Properties' purchase of Century Casinos' assets (USD 164.7 Million). These transactions reflect ongoing consolidation within the sector and investor interest in specific asset classes.
- Innovation Drivers: The adoption of PropTech solutions, including building management systems (BMS) and virtual tours, is transforming operational efficiencies and marketing strategies. Growing demand for sustainable buildings and green certifications drives innovation in energy-efficient designs and materials. The increasing use of data analytics for market forecasting and risk assessment also contributes to market innovation.
Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Industry Trends & Insights
The Canadian commercial real estate market is projected to experience steady growth over the forecast period (2025-2033). Key growth drivers include robust economic activity in major cities, increasing urbanization, and strong demand from various end-user sectors. However, challenges such as rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and evolving consumer preferences could moderate growth. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is estimated at xx% during the forecast period. Market penetration of sustainable building practices is expected to increase from xx% in 2025 to xx% by 2033. Technological disruptions, including the adoption of PropTech and the rise of remote work, are reshaping the market dynamics, impacting office space demand and property management practices. Consumer preferences are shifting towards experience-driven retail and flexible workspaces, demanding adaptability and innovation from real estate developers. The competitive dynamics are characterized by increased competition among both established players and emerging firms, leading to strategic alliances, acquisitions, and diversification.
Dominant Markets & Segments in Canada Commercial Real Estate Market
Toronto and Vancouver consistently rank as the most dominant markets in Canada's commercial real estate sector, driven by strong population growth, economic activity, and a high concentration of major corporations. However, other cities like Montreal, Calgary, and Edmonton also demonstrate significant potential.
By Type: The industrial segment is experiencing the strongest growth, fueled by e-commerce expansion and increased manufacturing activity. Multi-family residential is also seeing significant growth, driven by increasing population density and rental demand in major urban centers. Office space demand is evolving due to the rise of remote work, potentially affecting market dynamics in the long term. Retail remains dynamic with a significant focus on experience-based retail. The hospitality sector shows varied performance across regions, influenced by tourism patterns and economic conditions.
By Key Cities:
- Toronto: Strong economic base, large population, and robust infrastructure attract significant investments.
- Vancouver: High demand, limited supply, and a strong tech sector contribute to high property values.
- Calgary: Primarily driven by the energy sector, with potential for growth depending on economic conditions.
- Montreal: Stable market with a diverse economy, showing potential for sustainable growth.
- Edmonton: Similar to Calgary, the energy sector plays a dominant role.
- Ottawa: Government activity and technology sector contribute to steady growth.
- Rest of Canada: Market dynamics vary significantly depending on the specific region and economic conditions.
Key drivers of dominance include favorable economic policies, robust infrastructure, and a supportive regulatory environment.
Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Product Developments
Product innovations are driven by technological advancements and changing end-user needs. Smart building technologies, sustainable design, and flexible workspaces are gaining prominence. Competition is intensifying, leading developers to prioritize sustainability, cost efficiency, and tenant experience. The market is seeing increasing adoption of PropTech solutions aiming to enhance efficiency and improve the tenant experience.
Report Scope & Segmentation Analysis
This report segments the Canadian commercial real estate market by property type (Office, Retail, Industrial, Multi-family, Hospitality) and by key cities (Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa, Montreal, Edmonton, Rest of Canada). Each segment's growth projections, market sizes, and competitive dynamics are thoroughly analyzed. The industrial sector is projected to experience the fastest growth due to e-commerce boom and increased demand for warehouse and logistics space. Office sector's future growth is moderated by flexible work model trends. Retail segment shows varying performance dependent on e-commerce competition and location, while multi-family is expected to continue its strong growth given population density. Hospitality sector performance is closely linked with tourism trends and economic stability.
Key Drivers of Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Growth
Key growth drivers include:
- Strong economic growth: A robust national economy fuels demand for commercial real estate across various sectors.
- Urbanization: The increasing concentration of population in urban areas boosts demand for residential and commercial spaces.
- Technological advancements: PropTech solutions are increasing efficiency and driving innovation.
- Government initiatives: Policies promoting sustainable development and infrastructure improvements create favorable market conditions.
Challenges in the Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Sector
Challenges include:
- Rising interest rates: Increased borrowing costs can dampen investment and development activity.
- Supply chain disruptions: Delays and increased costs affect construction and renovation projects.
- Increasing competition: Intense competition among developers can lead to pricing pressure and reduced profitability. The estimated impact is a xx% decrease in profitability for some developers in 2023.
Emerging Opportunities in Canada Commercial Real Estate Market
Emerging opportunities include:
- Sustainable building practices: Growing demand for eco-friendly buildings presents substantial opportunities.
- PropTech adoption: Implementing innovative technologies can create operational efficiencies and enhance tenant experience.
- Expansion into secondary markets: Investment in smaller cities with growing economies can yield high returns.
Leading Players in the Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Market
- 6 Cominar REIT
- 3 Realtor, Developers
- 2 Harvey Kalles Real Estate
- 9 Goodman Commercial
- 3 Amacon
- 4 Pinnacle International
- 1 Brookfield Global Integrated Solutions
- Real Estate Brokerage Firms
- 1 Manulife Real Estate
- 10 Redev Properties*
- 7 Allied REIT**List Not Exhaustive
- 2 WestBank Corp
- 1 Onni Group
- 6 Knights Bridge Development Corp
- 5 Dream Office REIT
- Other Companies (startups associations etc )
- 2 Relogix
- 8 TAG Developments
- 7 Chard Development
- 4 Hausway
- 3 Maxwell Realty*
- 5 Anthem Properties Group Limited
Key Developments in Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Industry
June 2023: Prologis, Inc. and Blackstone announced a USD 3.1 Billion acquisition of nearly 14 Million square feet of industrial properties. This reflects strong investor confidence in the industrial sector. The acquisition indicates a cap rate of approximately 4% in the first year, rising to 5.75% adjusted to current market rents.
May 2023: VICI Properties Inc. acquired Century Casinos' real estate assets in Calgary and Edmonton for USD 164.7 Million, demonstrating confidence in the Canadian gaming industry and highlighting cross-border investment interest.
Strategic Outlook for Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Market
The Canadian commercial real estate market offers promising long-term growth potential. Continued urbanization, economic expansion, and technological advancements will drive demand across various segments. However, navigating interest rate fluctuations, supply chain challenges, and evolving consumer preferences will remain crucial for success. Focusing on sustainable practices, technological integration, and strategic partnerships will be essential for capitalizing on emerging opportunities.
Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Segmentation
-
1. Type
- 1.1. Office
- 1.2. Retail
- 1.3. Industrial
- 1.4. Multi-family
- 1.5. Hospitality
-
2. Key Cities
- 2.1. Toronto
- 2.2. Vancouver
- 2.3. Calgary
- 2.4. Ottawa
- 2.5. Montreal
- 2.6. Edmonton
- 2.7. Rest of Canada
Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Segmentation By Geography
- 1. Canada
Canada Commercial Real Estate Market REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
| Aspects | Details |
|---|---|
| Study Period | 2019-2033 |
| Base Year | 2024 |
| Estimated Year | 2025 |
| Forecast Period | 2025-2033 |
| Historical Period | 2019-2024 |
| Growth Rate | CAGR of 7.59% from 2019-2033 |
| Segmentation |
|
Table of Contents
- 1. Introduction
- 1.1. Research Scope
- 1.2. Market Segmentation
- 1.3. Research Methodology
- 1.4. Definitions and Assumptions
- 2. Executive Summary
- 2.1. Introduction
- 3. Market Dynamics
- 3.1. Introduction
- 3.2. Market Drivers
- 3.2.1. Evolution of retail sector driving the market; Office spaces in Toronto and Vancouver are increasing
- 3.3. Market Restrains
- 3.3.1. High interest rates tend to slowdown business growth; Increasing cost of real estate affecting the growth of the market
- 3.4. Market Trends
- 3.4.1. Evolution of retail sector driving the market
- 4. Market Factor Analysis
- 4.1. Porters Five Forces
- 4.2. Supply/Value Chain
- 4.3. PESTEL analysis
- 4.4. Market Entropy
- 4.5. Patent/Trademark Analysis
- 5. Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast, 2019-2031
- 5.1. Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast - by Type
- 5.1.1. Office
- 5.1.2. Retail
- 5.1.3. Industrial
- 5.1.4. Multi-family
- 5.1.5. Hospitality
- 5.2. Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast - by Key Cities
- 5.2.1. Toronto
- 5.2.2. Vancouver
- 5.2.3. Calgary
- 5.2.4. Ottawa
- 5.2.5. Montreal
- 5.2.6. Edmonton
- 5.2.7. Rest of Canada
- 5.3. Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast - by Region
- 5.3.1. Canada
- 5.1. Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast - by Type
- 6. Eastern Canada Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast, 2019-2031
- 7. Western Canada Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast, 2019-2031
- 8. Central Canada Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Analysis, Insights and Forecast, 2019-2031
- 9. Competitive Analysis
- 9.1. Market Share Analysis 2024
- 9.2. Company Profiles
- 9.2.1 6 Cominar REIT
- 9.2.1.1. Overview
- 9.2.1.2. Products
- 9.2.1.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.1.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.1.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.2 3 Realtor
- 9.2.2.1. Overview
- 9.2.2.2. Products
- 9.2.2.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.2.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.2.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.3 Developers
- 9.2.3.1. Overview
- 9.2.3.2. Products
- 9.2.3.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.3.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.3.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.4 2 Harvey Kalles Real Estate
- 9.2.4.1. Overview
- 9.2.4.2. Products
- 9.2.4.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.4.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.4.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.5 9 Goodman Commercial
- 9.2.5.1. Overview
- 9.2.5.2. Products
- 9.2.5.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.5.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.5.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.6 3 Amacon
- 9.2.6.1. Overview
- 9.2.6.2. Products
- 9.2.6.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.6.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.6.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.7 4 Pinnacle International
- 9.2.7.1. Overview
- 9.2.7.2. Products
- 9.2.7.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.7.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.7.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.8 1 Brookfield Global Integrated Solutions
- 9.2.8.1. Overview
- 9.2.8.2. Products
- 9.2.8.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.8.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.8.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.9 Real Estate Brokerage Firms
- 9.2.9.1. Overview
- 9.2.9.2. Products
- 9.2.9.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.9.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.9.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.10 1 Manulife Real Estate
- 9.2.10.1. Overview
- 9.2.10.2. Products
- 9.2.10.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.10.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.10.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.11 10 Redev Properties*
- 9.2.11.1. Overview
- 9.2.11.2. Products
- 9.2.11.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.11.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.11.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.12 7 Allied REIT**List Not Exhaustive
- 9.2.12.1. Overview
- 9.2.12.2. Products
- 9.2.12.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.12.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.12.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.13 2 WestBank Corp
- 9.2.13.1. Overview
- 9.2.13.2. Products
- 9.2.13.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.13.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.13.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.14 1 Onni Group
- 9.2.14.1. Overview
- 9.2.14.2. Products
- 9.2.14.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.14.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.14.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.15 6 Knights Bridge Development Corp
- 9.2.15.1. Overview
- 9.2.15.2. Products
- 9.2.15.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.15.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.15.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.16 5 Dream Office REIT
- 9.2.16.1. Overview
- 9.2.16.2. Products
- 9.2.16.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.16.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.16.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.17 Other Companies (startups associations etc )
- 9.2.17.1. Overview
- 9.2.17.2. Products
- 9.2.17.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.17.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.17.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.18 2 Relogix
- 9.2.18.1. Overview
- 9.2.18.2. Products
- 9.2.18.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.18.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.18.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.19 8 TAG Developments
- 9.2.19.1. Overview
- 9.2.19.2. Products
- 9.2.19.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.19.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.19.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.20 7 Chard Development
- 9.2.20.1. Overview
- 9.2.20.2. Products
- 9.2.20.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.20.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.20.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.21 4 Hausway
- 9.2.21.1. Overview
- 9.2.21.2. Products
- 9.2.21.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.21.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.21.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.22 3 Maxwell Realty*
- 9.2.22.1. Overview
- 9.2.22.2. Products
- 9.2.22.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.22.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.22.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.23 5 Anthem Properties Group Limited
- 9.2.23.1. Overview
- 9.2.23.2. Products
- 9.2.23.3. SWOT Analysis
- 9.2.23.4. Recent Developments
- 9.2.23.5. Financials (Based on Availability)
- 9.2.1 6 Cominar REIT
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Revenue Breakdown (Million, %) by Product 2024 & 2032
- Figure 2: Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Share (%) by Company 2024
List of Tables
- Table 1: Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Region 2019 & 2032
- Table 2: Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Type 2019 & 2032
- Table 3: Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Key Cities 2019 & 2032
- Table 4: Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Region 2019 & 2032
- Table 5: Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Country 2019 & 2032
- Table 6: Eastern Canada Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 7: Western Canada Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 8: Central Canada Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Revenue (Million) Forecast, by Application 2019 & 2032
- Table 9: Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Type 2019 & 2032
- Table 10: Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Key Cities 2019 & 2032
- Table 11: Canada Commercial Real Estate Market Revenue Million Forecast, by Country 2019 & 2032
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is the projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the Canada Commercial Real Estate Market?
The projected CAGR is approximately 7.59%.
2. Which companies are prominent players in the Canada Commercial Real Estate Market?
Key companies in the market include 6 Cominar REIT, 3 Realtor, Developers, 2 Harvey Kalles Real Estate, 9 Goodman Commercial, 3 Amacon, 4 Pinnacle International, 1 Brookfield Global Integrated Solutions, Real Estate Brokerage Firms, 1 Manulife Real Estate, 10 Redev Properties*, 7 Allied REIT**List Not Exhaustive, 2 WestBank Corp, 1 Onni Group, 6 Knights Bridge Development Corp, 5 Dream Office REIT, Other Companies (startups associations etc ), 2 Relogix, 8 TAG Developments, 7 Chard Development, 4 Hausway, 3 Maxwell Realty*, 5 Anthem Properties Group Limited.
3. What are the main segments of the Canada Commercial Real Estate Market?
The market segments include Type, Key Cities.
4. Can you provide details about the market size?
The market size is estimated to be USD 77.09 Million as of 2022.
5. What are some drivers contributing to market growth?
Evolution of retail sector driving the market; Office spaces in Toronto and Vancouver are increasing.
6. What are the notable trends driving market growth?
Evolution of retail sector driving the market.
7. Are there any restraints impacting market growth?
High interest rates tend to slowdown business growth; Increasing cost of real estate affecting the growth of the market.
8. Can you provide examples of recent developments in the market?
June 2023: Prologis, Inc. and Blackstone announced a definitive agreement for Prologis to acquire nearly 14 million square feet of industrial properties from opportunistic real estate funds affiliated with Blackstone for USD 3.1 billion, funded by cash. The acquisition price represents an approximately 4% cap rate in the first year and a 5.75% cap rate when adjusting to today's market rents.
9. What pricing options are available for accessing the report?
Pricing options include single-user, multi-user, and enterprise licenses priced at USD 3800, USD 4500, and USD 5800 respectively.
10. Is the market size provided in terms of value or volume?
The market size is provided in terms of value, measured in Million.
11. Are there any specific market keywords associated with the report?
Yes, the market keyword associated with the report is "Canada Commercial Real Estate Market," which aids in identifying and referencing the specific market segment covered.
12. How do I determine which pricing option suits my needs best?
The pricing options vary based on user requirements and access needs. Individual users may opt for single-user licenses, while businesses requiring broader access may choose multi-user or enterprise licenses for cost-effective access to the report.
13. Are there any additional resources or data provided in the Canada Commercial Real Estate Market report?
While the report offers comprehensive insights, it's advisable to review the specific contents or supplementary materials provided to ascertain if additional resources or data are available.
14. How can I stay updated on further developments or reports in the Canada Commercial Real Estate Market?
To stay informed about further developments, trends, and reports in the Canada Commercial Real Estate Market, consider subscribing to industry newsletters, following relevant companies and organizations, or regularly checking reputable industry news sources and publications.
Methodology
Step 1 - Identification of Relevant Samples Size from Population Database
Step 2 - Approaches for Defining Global Market Size (Value, Volume* & Price*)
Note*: In applicable scenarios
Step 3 - Data Sources
Primary Research
- Web Analytics
- Survey Reports
- Research Institute
- Latest Research Reports
- Opinion Leaders
Secondary Research
- Annual Reports
- White Paper
- Latest Press Release
- Industry Association
- Paid Database
- Investor Presentations
Step 4 - Data Triangulation
Involves using different sources of information in order to increase the validity of a study
These sources are likely to be stakeholders in a program - participants, other researchers, program staff, other community members, and so on.
Then we put all data in single framework & apply various statistical tools to find out the dynamic on the market.
During the analysis stage, feedback from the stakeholder groups would be compared to determine areas of agreement as well as areas of divergence
